Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the country and caused chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an highly split population where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or activists want to engage even with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. They authors two pieces that strive for neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover flags and symbols, levies, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has got important lessons to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster must join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
