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Ordinarily, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor adheres to a simple script. It often functions as a form of mea culpa. We regret we misjudged your team in our pre-campaign forecasts.

In theory, it's a clear-cut path: the coach who orchestrated the biggest improvement wins the prize. However, it creates an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding excellent coaching or simply the biggest shock.

However the current field is fundamentally unique. The group of nominees is remarkably strong. It has been the year of turnarounds. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent division winners falling away and longtime strugglers ascending together. Under an typical season, Sean Payton leading the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the clear front-runner. Yet in such a turbulent and entertaining year, he's up against multiple other elite candidates.

Below is how the ideal vote ought to shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors love quarterbacks. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. In the right system, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to display his otherworldly talent. From Week 9, the Bears sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's prolonged performance. Under Johnson, Williams has become increasingly decisive, far less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the system rather than improvising. It is an offense designed entirely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action and a imaginative aerial game that frees wide receiver receivers everywhere. The QB has capitalized. And when openings weren't there, he's been able to conjure big plays from nothing.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive blueprint. Almost each gamble – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, turning Williams into a timing-based passer – has paid off. This is uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who walked into the building with the immense pressure he did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no sure things. Somehow, he has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a offensive wizard but the type of leader that can inject new life into an franchise.

During a typical year, he would be the runaway choice. But the current is not a typical season!

The area where Johnson's case runs slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears presently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously fickle. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the team would be two wins behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is established for long-term winning. But he falls just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable situation to Johnson. He's another rookie head coach who has orchestrated a swift turnaround. Over the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the league in EPA per play.

Even more notably, he has mastered the intangibles stuff, which was not a given after his early press conference appearances and some of his offseason moves.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the perfect coaching mix of youth and experience, Coen bet on newbies. From the leader himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That kind of setup is intriguing in theory, but frequently collapses in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a their job in real-time. Yet he has managed to bring the entire group and everything into sync.

Following an initial strong start, there was a chance that the campaign would go off the rails. A mid-year setback had the Jags stumbling once more. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. He did not. Rather, he simplified things. The offense stopped pursuing home-run plays and started seeking sustainable ones. The coach refocused the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more.

The results are clear. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three seed. Coen gets the slightest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a talented team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year narrative has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB move.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a different quarterback and partnering him with an new play-caller might have ended the season in October. Instead, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the year, the new QB was an MVP front-runner. He has cooled off after that time, slipping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, putting him only a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still